https://emergingthreat.net/threats daily 0.75 2024-03-13 https://emergingthreat.net/threats/great-power-competition monthly 0.5 2024-03-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/7c9750b1-d76e-42e2-8613-234a159a8f05/U.S.-Nuclear-Policies-for-a-Safer-World-01-2500x1270.jpg Threats - Great Power Competition Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age (2019), Bear F. Braumoeller https://emergingthreat.net/threats/modern-nuclear-war monthly 0.5 2022-09-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/7c9750b1-d76e-42e2-8613-234a159a8f05/U.S.-Nuclear-Policies-for-a-Safer-World-01-2500x1270.jpg Threats - Modern Nuclear War “U.S. Nuclear Policies for a Safer World” (2021), Moniz et al. (Nuclear Threat Initiative) https://emergingthreat.net/threats/destabilizing-artificial-intelligence monthly 0.5 2024-03-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/4b55faa5-83cc-4c77-a90c-d5cb46d9639a/surveillance.jpg Threats - Destabilizing Artificial Intelligence “The Real Dangers of an AI Arms Race” (2019), Paul Scharre https://emergingthreat.net/threats/catastrophic-biological-risks monthly 0.5 2024-03-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/9c46c445-7716-44b3-b4ad-b92c4cbd9aac/Screen+Shot+2022-05-10+at+7.29.28+PM.jpg Threats - Catastrophic Biological Risks “A Handbook for Ending Catastrophic Biological Risks” (2022), Council on Strategic Risks https://emergingthreat.net/background daily 0.75 2024-03-29 https://emergingthreat.net/background/foresighted-policymaking monthly 0.5 2024-03-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/6fdd4828-1044-4094-9412-05b21a550409/Screen+Shot+2022-09-06+at+3.22.56+PM.jpg Further Reading - Foresighted Policymaking “Shaping the Next One Hundred Years” (2003), Robert Lempert et al. (Rand Corporation) https://emergingthreat.net/background/careers monthly 0.5 2024-03-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/ed200b9e-4a5f-4a3c-a81d-2446865fff88/Screen+Shot+2022-09-06+at+3.26.33+PM.jpg Further Reading - Policy Careers - Pathways into Policy, Emerging Tech Policy Careers https://emergingthreat.net/background/horizon-scanning monthly 0.5 2023-01-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/5e5cc62e-20cf-4ef8-ac49-a930d84d8b32/Screen+Shot+2022-07-13+at+11.01.41+AM.jpg Further Reading - US Policy Trends “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World” (2021), Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council https://emergingthreat.net/background/tag/Further+Reading monthly 0.5 https://emergingthreat.net/join daily 0.75 2025-11-07 https://emergingthreat.net/resources daily 0.75 2023-01-01 https://emergingthreat.net/home daily 1.0 2022-06-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/c0553d98-0b8c-4c47-b0db-047556ddfd2e/unsplash-image-DCzpr09cTXY.jpg Home - We aim to learn lessons from the past to secure our present and future. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1652636193245-ZMOO9AWTNUYG55TS8TWO/unsplash-image-dbc9DGSJzKo.jpg Home Together we can build a U.S. national security community that takes appropriate action against the most dangerous emerging threats. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/005bd719-6848-48f1-bc92-5428b9f8c87f/unsplash-image-EhhkwsrX7g8.jpg Home - Most catastrophes have low odds—but low odds add up. And the stakes could not be higher. https://emergingthreat.net/career-advice-resources daily 0.75 2023-01-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968171314-6TBSFIR2AG0NPPJTR4Y6/pexels-startup-stock-photos-7095.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968247758-XKALGOBRBUUSLH0KAYCA/Congress.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968260666-1ZYE6U5G6J613GDTZ6EF/Congress.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968281732-ATIMX2I86LNNPJHJROA7/Congress.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968307569-XBDNJRDFMWUR6QLJYA8T/govt%2Bagencies.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968334870-YTK58W957V9TDLUVYZZN/pexels-august-de-richelieu-4427624.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968629362-A6WQR7VC6CAAZEH3BQNR/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-11-03%2Bat%2B3.14.32%2BPM.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968652080-6VPFLSXWRVJV3WVIDI9T/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-11-03%2Bat%2B3.14.32%2BPM.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968673412-V5272HP9WB6WZKQYL114/nationalsecuritycouncilmeeting-400x266-400x266.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968724480-VJ85VAWWZ9T20GU88P5V/Security%2BClearance.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1635968753081-GZD5LJWW9HQSKH61TPD5/unsplash-image-DCzpr09cTXY.jpg Career Advice Resources https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/7c9750b1-d76e-42e2-8613-234a159a8f05/U.S.-Nuclear-Policies-for-a-Safer-World-01-2500x1270.jpg Career Advice Resources https://emergingthreat.net/new-page daily 0.75 2021-09-21 https://emergingthreat.net/make-a-donation daily 0.75 2021-09-21 https://emergingthreat.net/about-new daily 0.75 2022-09-04 https://emergingthreat.net/background-new daily 0.75 2022-09-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/cdbfff5a-3877-49e9-b197-c96ad6ec2eb6/nuclear-weapons-test-67557_1920.jpg Background (New) - Modern Nuclear War In the post-Cold War world, awareness of nuclear war has faded into the background—but the threat never went away. Indeed, the risk of nuclear proliferation and use is growing in light of the reemergence of great power conflict, shifting nuclear postures, and the development of new technologies. Collectively, these changes are poised to undermine the stability of nuclear deterrence and increase escalation risks. Nuclear war may not only kill hundreds of millions of people directly, but billions of people indirectly due to subsequent uncertain effects on agriculture. The exchange of hundreds of nuclear warheads may, at its worst, imperil humanity’s existence. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/4294216f-43d9-4adf-9b4d-b32b2cbfdf30/unsplash-image-Sc1GJCninik.jpg Background (New) - Destabilizing Artificial Intelligence “Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies promise to be…a source of enormous power for countries that harness them.” However, as powerful as modern machine learning is, the technology also remains profoundly fragile—even the most advanced AI systems can unpredictably fail. The risk of system failures causing significant harm increases as machine learning becomes more widely used, especially in areas where safety and security are critical. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/1652636538772-U3H1FNVG1G67K5PA9FYL/unsplash-image-1hiruylC9zU.jpg Background (New) - Great Power Competition Three decades after the Cold War, policy analysts proclaim a return to great power competition. The 2022 National Defense Strategy characterizes China as the United States’ “most consequential strategic competitor” and Russia as an “acute threat.” While those nations are a threat to our values and security, efforts to defend against those threats can pose significant threats, too, by making arms arms races and escalation more likely as well as by thwarting international cooperation on collective security issues. As such, great power competition not only makes the risk of direct catastrophes more likely but also indirectly exacerbates catastrophic threats. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/610993c907ec1116e1743c90/792be5eb-a7ce-43a6-9c02-bba86da37480/unsplash-image-6tiytXTQ3Yg.jpg Background (New) - Catastrophic Biological Risks COVID-19 has caused global devastation and demonstrated the urgent need to improve U.S. national strategy and responses to biological threats. Yet, progress in and proliferation of biotechnology is likely to increase both the frequency and severity of future biological threats, whether from lab accidents or the deliberate release of engineered pathogens. As Kevin Esvelt points out, the United States “has lost more citizens to the pandemic than it has in all military conflicts in the past century, yet it devotes less than 1% of its defense budget to biodefense”. https://emergingthreat.net/about daily 0.75 2023-01-31