Great Power Competition
Three decades after the Cold War, policy analysts proclaim a return to great power competition. The 2022 National Defense Strategy characterizes China as the United States’ “most consequential strategic competitor” and Russia as an “acute threat.” While those nations are a threat to our values and security, efforts to defend against those threats can pose significant threats, too, by making arms arms races and escalation more likely as well as by thwarting international cooperation on collective security issues. As such, great power competition not only makes the risk of direct catastrophes more likely but also indirectly exacerbates catastrophic threats.
The national security community should identify areas of mutual concern to adversaries and the international systems, norms, and practices needed for security in those domains. In setting foreign policy, policymakers should strive to maintain cooperation on those issues even as they compete in other areas.
Further Reading
Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age (2019), Bear F. Braumoeller
“The twilight of the liberal world order” (2017), Robert Kagan (The Brookings Institution)
“The Return of Great Power War” (2022), Heath, Gunness, and Finazzo (RAND)
”Emerging Dynamics — International: More Contested, Uncertain, and Conflict Prone” (2021), National Intelligence Council
